Belarus' economic forecast for 2018: Main projections

Belarus' economic forecast for 2018: Main projections

The growth of GDP and exports, low inflation and a reduction in the refinancing rate. The main financial and economic documents of Belarus are endorsed by the head of state, and the predicted indicators are feasible in the opinion of experts.

In 2018, Belarus will increase its milk sales by ten times, including thanks to contracts with the USA and China.

Alexei Bogdanov, head of the main department of foreign economic activity of the Ministry of Agriculture and Food of the Republic of Belarus:
For the first time in the history of Belarus, we have got more than 5,000 kilograms of milk per year per one animal. Due to the increase in production, we plan to increase export earnings.

The total volume of Belarusian exports of goods and services in 2018 should grow by almost 6%.

This indicator is registered in the decree of the head of state. The reserve was already made in 2017. 

Georgy Grits, economic analyst:
In monetary policy from the point of view of macroeconomic indicators, even the same GDP growth, the level of inflation, the lowering of the refinancing rate, such favorable indicators have not been set for almost 10 years.

Belarus' GDP forecast for 2018 is a growth of 3.5%.

The business community considers these figures justified. There are all the prerequisites for this. In addition the greater activity should also stem from inexpensive money for loans.      

Oleg Ilyin, director of an analytical agency:
The low refinancing rate is the main guarantee for lowering the loan rates, which is a very important indicator for the national economy, because the cost of borrowing credit resources will be lower, and our enterprises can take more loans and implement projects.  

The export-oriented economy of Belarus now chooses not only the traditional pillars - machine building and agro-industrial complex - as growth points, but also IT products.   

Georgy Grits:
The new normative acts aim at lowering dependency of the Belarusian economy from raw materials, which today are imported products for us. At the same time we are changing the structure of the Belarusian economy, we want to access new markets, create more innovative products, with higher added value.

The rhetoric of the financial institutions in Europe has changed in relation to Belarus' economic policy too.

In 2018, the EBRD initially predicted a growth of only 1%, then became more generous by two times!

The forecasts of the International Monetary Fund and the Belarusian authorities, however, coincided - 3.4%.

The authorities now count on business activity of the population supporting the trend with reducing the number of inspections and the number of tax payments. Now, legal entities working in small towns, instead of four taxes need to pay only one. This is an income tax of 6%.

Despite further liberalization, the social component of state policy will remain in place in Belarus.

The rise in prices in 2018 should not be more than 6%, and budgetary allocations for education, health care should go up. Salaries for employees of the state sector of the economy should rise.