The Russian ruble has renewed historical minimum. The devaluation of the yuan has been lasting for a few days. The euro is also falling. In recent years, the global financial market has been experiencing a wave of change. Judging by newspaper headlines, not always for the better.
Against the backdrop of global economic turmoil the dollar gradually began to grow in Belarus. However, this event is for economists did not become news. Oil prices have been falling for more than a month. Now the barrel costs about $ 50. Six months ago, it was twice as high. Changes in oil prices affect the condition of the Russian ruble. Russia is the main trading partner of Belarus. 40 percent of Belarusian national currency is tied to the monetary units of the Russian Federation.
Georgy Grits, Ph.D. in economics:
The Eurasian Bank last year made the predictions of the mathematical model, according to which the $10 fall in oil prices per barrel leads to a shrink of 0.5% of GDP of Russia. Unfortunately, the forecasts are not very favorable. There is a significant factor: Iran enters the oil market. Moreover, there are some political aspects: the conflict in eastern Ukraine, the conflict of the European Union and the United States, problems in the southern countries of the European Union. A number of negative factors has matched. We see the result of these negative factors.
In 2014, the Ukrainian hryvnia has handed over the positions. The rate of the dollar and the euro against the hryvnia rose by more than 90 percent. Experts predict the further devaluation of Kazakhstan's tenge. Last year it weakened against the dollar by 20 percent. The Chinese national currency is falling too. There are financial changes on the western front, too. After nine months of a rapid fall, dropping to its lowest rate in 12 years against the dollar, the euro began gradual increase only in April.
Valery Polkhovsky, financial analyst:
We, as the participants of the currency market, need to get used to the fact that in the currency markets there can be a much higher level of volatility. You can hardly meet such low volatility level as in Belarusian currency market. Therefore, a higher level of volatility in fact will help ensure that there are fewer speculators and fewer players.